Two numbers come out of this, and solar needs both. The kilowatt-hours are what every sizing tool on this site starts from: run each big load through here and the daily total is the input to the solar system size calculator. The cost is what solar competes with, and the section below sets out what a solar kilowatt-hour is actually worth against it: the full retail rate when you use it as it is made, the export rate when you do not, and nothing at all on a UK plug-in kit.
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DC cable ampacity with the ambient and bundling corrections, how far each size runs at 12, 24 and 48 V, PV string fuse sizes from Isc, and battery-to-inverter current by inverter size. Three pages, made to pin by the battery bank.
Nothing more to it than that. The interesting part is what happens to the number afterwards.
A kilowatt-hour from your own panels is worth one of three amounts depending on where it goes:
So moving a load from evening to midday is worth the gap between the two rates on every kilowatt-hour it shifts: $0.12 on the payback tool's defaults, the full 25.7p on a plug-in kit. On a time-of-use tariff the same logic runs the other way round for what you still buy: a load you cannot shift into daylight belongs in the cheap overnight window, and the rate to enter above is the one that applies when it actually runs, not the day rate.
A 1,000 W load running 5 hours a day for 30 days at $0.30 per kWh:
Solar water pumping runs the same arithmetic in the other direction. A borehole pump moving 4 m³/h against 30 m of head needs about 0.33 kW of hydraulic power, roughly 0.64 kW at the terminals once pump and motor efficiency are allowed for; the pump power calculator gives that figure from the duty point. Six hours a day is 3.84 kWh, and at 4.5 peak sun hours that is about a 1.1 kW array to run it with no grid at all.
| System | A kWh used in the home | A kWh you could not use | Where to take the number |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grid-tied rooftop with an export tariff | Retail rate | Export rate, typically a fraction of retail | Solar payback calculator |
| UK plug-in or balcony kit | Retail rate | Zero: spilled to the grid unpaid | Plug-in solar savings calculator |
| Off grid | There is no bill; the kWh sizes the array and the bank instead | Curtailed once the bank is full | Off-grid load calculator |
Whichever route, the cheapest kilowatt-hour is the one you stop using. Every watt cut from the load is a watt of panel, battery and cable you do not buy, and reduction is always cheaper per kWh than generation. Trim the load first, then size for what is left.
Retail if you use it as it is generated, export if you do not, and on a UK plug-in kit the export value is nothing at all. The gap between the two is what self-consumption is worth: on the payback calculator's defaults of $0.17 retail and $0.05 export, every kilowatt-hour shifted into daylight is worth $0.12, and on a plug-in kit at 25.7p it is worth the whole 25.7p. That is why a timer on the dishwasher often beats another panel.
Divide the daily kWh by your peak sun hours and by one minus the loss factor, then by the panel wattage. A 5 kWh a day load at 4.5 peak sun hours with the system size calculator's default 18% losses needs 5 ÷ (4.5 × 0.82) = 1.36 kW, which is four 400 W panels once you round up. Off grid, size on the winter sun hours rather than the annual average, or the array will be a third short in December.
The ones that run for long hours at high wattage during the day, because they dominate both the bill and the array size, and because a daytime load is offset at the full retail rate rather than the export rate. Water heating, pool pumps, washing and dishwashing on a timer, and anything with a thermostat that can be nudged into the afternoon. A load that only runs at night is offset at nothing without a battery.
Yes, in both directions. Enter the rate that applies when the load actually runs, not the headline day rate. A load you can move into daylight is worth the retail rate you would have paid at that hour; a load you cannot move is cheapest in the overnight window and is the natural candidate for a battery to time-shift solar into. The payback calculator's separate retail and export rates handle the first case; the second is a sizing question for the bank.
It sets the ceiling. A load costing $547.50 a year cannot save more than $547.50 a year on solar however big the array, and it only saves that much if all of it runs in daylight. Compare that ceiling with the kit price: an 880 W UK plug-in kit at £499 on a south-facing balcony saves about £89 a year with someone home during the day and pays back in 5.3 years, and £37 a year if the house is empty on weekdays. The saving depends on when the loads run, which is why this page exists.
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